St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

I am late in posting the August 2026 statistics for St. Cloud, as well as the August and meteorological summer (Jun-Aug) St. Cloud weather summary. I am really in the process of getting that done, updating the climate spreadsheets on my computer, and I am found a number of statistics about how dry Minnesota has been since August 2025. I have only updated the spreadsheets and written down some key points on a piece of paper next to the computer so far (Note to self: OK Boomer). Some of the St. Cloud Statistics are listed in the table below:

The extremely dry statistics are the result of major rain shortfalls both during the growing season (more than 5 inches behind) and the late summer and fall of last year (more than 4 inches behind; select St. Cloud on the Minnesota DNR Monthly Precipitation Anomaly tool). While St. Cloud has been in a high shortfall area for the growing season (see red areas when you set the NWS Water Prediction Service Minnesota precipitation map to yesterday's date, departure from average, and last 120 days), there are worse levels (brightest red on the departure from the Minnesota DNR normal Minnesota growing season map; scroll to bottom) scattered through Minnesota. Those are the pockets showing D3 (red) drought levels in the Red River Valley, southwestern Minnesota, the Duluth area, and the Twin Cities on the latest US Drought Monitor. 

Best Chance for Important Rain Late Monday...Maybe

So, all of the above spells out, "We need a lot more rain." The chances for significant rain remain uncertain for today until midday Monday. There will be a strong cold front moving through Minnesota late Monday and Monday night, when the main low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor satellite loop) pushes into Manitoba, dragging a strong cold front through Minnesota. Even then, many of the forecasts have been hinted that the best chance for significant rain may be in the northern half of Minnesota (see NWS WPC Days 3-5 Quantitative Precipitation Forecast).

Uncertain Chances for Isolated Storms Today Through Sunday Night

Before that Monday situation, there will be chances for rainfall in spotty thunderstorms, but that makes the prediction difficult. Overnight, there have been a few outbreaks of scattered storms in parts of the Dakotas (see College of DuPage north central US radar map) with some stronger storms during the early morning hours. This last batch of storms has a chance to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms in western Minnesota early this morning and will also throw more middle level clouds (see College of DuPage North Central US shortwave infrared satellite loop) over the top of the fog clouds in central Minnesota early this morning (see filled in red circles on the latest NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map).

Some of the computer forecasts, as well as the NWS Storm Prediction Center forecasters have been noting a slightly better chance for showers and thunderstorms, including severe weather, late tonight into tomorrow morning. Still, these storms would be produced by a series of weak storm systems caught up in the southwest to northeast flow to the east of the strong Pacific Northwest low (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor satellite loop). Given the usual outage of upper air stations to our west (see yesterday's 7 AM 700 mb upper-air chart from the Wyoming Weather Web) and the problems the computer forecasts have in resolving resolve these weak systems, I'm just spraying today through tomorrow night with a 1 in 3 chance for storms.

Warmth and Humidity To Continue Today into Monday, But Clouds Could Cut Down on Heat

Yesterday's persistent low clouds and spotty drizzle (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations) didn't help our lake and river levels directly. However, it took until midday to burn off that fog, a process that is harder to do given our current hours of sunshine, which are down to mid-April levels. That kept the extreme heat and humidity (temperatures in the 90's with dew points in the middle 70's) in southern Minnesota (heat indices of 100-plus; see 3-5 PM version of NWS hourly Minnesota weather round-up). St Cloud only reached 86 degrees (on a day with 90-degree high temperature potential) and dew points remained in the uncomfortable 60's, so the worst heat index was 89. The overnight night approaching storms mean that high temperatures will get a slow start each of today and tomorrow, so I have keeping highs in the middle 80's today and near 80 tomorrow. We will hold on to the uncomfortable dew points in the middle to upper 60's.

Oppressive Humidity May Produce Another Heat Stress Day Monday Before The Storms

There may be a chance that the oppressive dew points to our south get into Minnesota on Monday before the better chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night. If we get into the middle or upper 80's for temperatures, some heat indices could again push into the upper 90's to lower 100's.

Drier by Midday Tuesday, Cooler Wednesday and Thursday

While I am uncertain even about the better chance for Monday night storms, the forecast drier air will push into Minnesota. It will be breezy behind the cold front, so we may still have a shot at a middle or upper 80's high on Tuesday, but the dew points should fall back to comfortable levels by the afternoon. Wednesday's highs will be limited to around 80 degrees. We may not have lows well down in the 50's either Tuesday or Wednesday nights because the northwest breezes will be blowing.

A warming trend is expected late next week, but it is uncertain how warm we would get or how much of a thunderstorm chance we will have.